Happy Easter! It feels like Mother Nature brought an April Fools joke…we’re not done with winter yet! We’re entering a battle zone between winter and spring.
A weak disturbance is tracking through the Ohio Valley this afternoon and will push eastward through the evening. Some moisture will be associated with the system, and with the cold air pushing in, some of it will fall as snow and/or sleet. The best chance for accumulating snow is north of I-64, with 3 to 5 inches possible in central Indiana and east-central Illinois where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. For areas south of the Ohio River, it should remain mostly or all rain. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s for most of us, with 20s possible in areas with snow cover.
Monday will be a day of transition, with highs in the 50s during the daytime. It should be dry and cloudy for most of the day, with a few showers or thunderstorms possible in southern Kentucky late in the day as the warm front pushes northward. Temperatures will actually rise through the night into Tuesday, which could be an active weather day. Indications are that the risk for severe weather is increasing on Tuesday.
The SPC has a marginal risk of severe weather (as of the morning update), but recent models including the NAM suggest a more unstable atmosphere. As a result, the Day 2 update will likely show a higher threat. The primary threats will likely be damaging winds and large hail, although specifics cannot be pinpointed at this stage of the game.
We will keep watching the situation as it unfolds.
SPC severe weather outlook for Tuesday. A marginal risk is in place over the Tri-State.
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